🎲 Monte Carlo Simulator
Explore revenue uncertainty with thousands of simulated outcomes. Change traffic, conversion rates, order values and your target to see how risk and probabilities evolve.
Simulation outcomes
Revenue distribution
Blue bars show simulated outcomes. Orange line marks your revenue target.
Scenario percentiles
P5 and P95 describe the middle 90% of simulated results under the stated assumptions. They are not a guaranteed confidence interval.
Learn the concepts
What is Monte Carlo simulation?
Instead of relying on one forecast, we repeatedly draw uncertain inputs from probability distributions and calculate the resulting outcome. The resulting distribution shows possible scenarios and their simulated likelihood.
What does the coefficient of variation mean?
CV is standard deviation divided by the mean. A CV of 10% for 10,000 visitors corresponds to an SD of about 1,000 visitors.
Why can my mean differ from the simple forecast?
Conversion rates are truncated to the interval [0, 1], and visitor counts and conversion outcomes are random. These modeling assumptions can shift the simulated mean, especially near probability boundaries.
Are the probabilities exact?
No. They are Monte Carlo estimates conditional on the distributions and independence assumptions. Real outcomes may behave differently; increase runs to reduce simulation noise, not modeling uncertainty.